As Bernice set off for coffee with a friend last week, I found myself marvelling, not for the first time, that she is able to maintain so many friendships, and that she is happy to invest time and effort in nurturing them. I reckon that life is considerably simpler if you can count your friends on the fingers of one hand…and that preferably a hand belonging to a sloth.

When I first thought of a subject for today’s post, I initially rejected it, for the obvious reason, but then realised that I should embrace it, for the same reason: after I publish it, and you read it, I will probably lose a number of friends. Besides, I find that I really cannot bring myself to write about anything else on this of all days, and so, I present… my take on the Israeli general election (for which the polls opened less than two hours before the publication time of this post).

It goes without saying that this is just my personal view: a view, I must add, that is offered with the caveat that I have never taken as much interest in politics, or involved myself in the political life of the country, as a responsible citizen living in a democracy should. Quite apart from any disagreement you may have with my beliefs or conclusions, you may well take issue with my representation of the facts.

Please feel free to respond – although I hope that we can keep any discussion in the Comments way above the gutter level of the Comments usually offered on political issues in the Times of London. Please also bear in mind that by the time you give me the benefit of your political wisdom, I will already have cast my vote, and I may not have another opportunity to exercise that right for, oooh, maybe as much as six months!

Just a very quick background for anyone not overly familiar with the Israeli system. It is a nationwide closed-list proportional representation system, with, this time round, 20 parties submitting lists of candidates to compete for the 120 seats. Any party (or alliance of parties) that gains less than 3.25% of the vote (representing, in effect, 4 members) sends no members to the Knesset.

Percentage turnout remained in the high 70s until 2003. Over the last four elections (held over a period of less than three years!), turnout averaged just under 70%. None of these elections produced a result that allowed a long-term viable coalition government to be formed. Now read on.

How does one (or, rather, how do I) pick a winner from a field of 20 parties? This is a multi-step process. The first three steps are, for me, always the same, regardless of the specific parties running in any given election.

Step 1: Eliminate the parties that are too far out there for me to relate to. (Ed. Note: It’s my process, and I get to decide what constitutes too far out there – for me.) This time round, these include Fiery Youth, a party led by a 20-year-old protest candidate known for TikTok videos.

Step 2: Eliminate the parties that I judge will not reach the electoral threshold. I know that this is a difficult step to defend as set policy:  if everybody who didn’t vote for Party X because they didn’t think it would reach the threshold voted for Party X, it would reach the threshold. This step is made easier for me because I have yet to encounter a party that I do not think will reach the threshold and whose policies I very closely and strongly identify with.

Step 3: Eliminate the parties that I believe represent exclusively a specific consistuency, at the expense of other constituencies, and whose constituency I do not consider myself a core member of.

These three steps, this time round, eliminated 13 of the parties. (You might want to amuse yourself by guessing which parties those are.) The remaining steps address the particular circumstances of this specific election.

For me, the blight over this election, as he was over the previous four, is Bibi. This time around, there are two clear issues around Bibi. The first is that I believe, in the current political, security, social and economic situation, the healthiest way forward for the country would be as broad a coalition of parties as possible. The last year has shown that this is not an impossible dream, although, given the slenderness of the last coalition’s majority, and the size of some MK’s egos, the last government proved unsustainable in the long term.

Unfortunately, there is no chance of a coalition including all of the largest parties because none of the centre-left and left parties will contemplate joining a coalition with a Likud party led by Bibi. Since Bibi has spent his entire time at the helm of Likud stifling any potential successor, the party has no charismatic candidate for successor, and all of those in positions of influence in the party are Bibi yes-men (and yes-women).

If the election results in a government coalition led by right-wing Likud and including (as it would) the extreme right-wing Religious Zionism alliance led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, then it seems clear that Bibi will further his personal agenda. The first item on that agenda is to make the criminal case against him go away, by passing legislation outlawing such cases against a sitting Prime Minister. The second, and, in my eyes, even more worrying, item is to increase executive power, by passing legislation such that if the Supreme Court blocks any Government legislation, the Knesset will have the power to ‘reject’ the Supreme Court’s decision by a simple majority of 61 votes. That seems to me a move that would seriously endanger Israel’s democracy, by removing one of the pillars of the principle of checks and balances.

On a personal note, Esther and her wife, Maayan, are currently jumping through the many, many bureaucratic hoops set by the Government to enable Maayan to be formally recognised as the adoptive parent of Raphael, to whom Esther gave birth seven months ago. Last week, they were warned by their lawyer that, if a right-wing coalition is formed, the process is liable to become even more difficult, protracted, unsympathetic and obstuctionist. The religious right-wing parties’ hatred of the LGBTQ community is no secret.

All of which explains why I will not be voting for Likud or Religious Zionism.

For those of you who are still reading, the next step is a bit painful. At one point, I greatly admired centre-right Ayelet Shaked, for her work as Justice Minister. However, she seems to have demonstrated a lack of the political awareness that a leader needs, and to have become very leaden in the last months. She has, I’m afraid, lost my confidence.

This leaves five parties, which can be described broadly as left and centre. As will be clear, if I don’t want a Likud-led coalition, the only alternative is a centrist-Yesh-Atid-led coalition. It is possible to argue long into the night as to where I should place my vote for it to be most effective in ensuring the outcome I want. Until I few days ago, I considered voting for centrist National Unity, believing (or perhaps only hoping) that, if Benny Gantz flipped again and joined a right-wing coalition, he would be a moderating force within that coalition. This belief probably represents the triumph of optimism over experience.

In the end, however, I decided to keep things simple. If I want Yair Lapid to have as strong a coalition as possible, then the best foundation to that is to have a Yesh Atid that is as strong as possible. I honestly believe that, in the Israel of 2022, the most pressing problems that Israel faces, at home and abroad, can best be addressed by a left-leaning, centrist, broad-based Government.

As Sherlock Holmes almost said: ‘When you have eliminated all which is unacceptable, then whatever remains, however unexpected, must be the best solution.’

If, against all odds, that is what I wake up to on Wednesday morning, then perhaps it will be followed fairly soon by the Likud Knesset rank and file finally showing some backbone and forcing Bibi to retire. I do, of course, acknowledge that a far more likely outcome is a right-wing coalition led by Bibi (my personal bet is a coalition bloc of 63 members), and then I do fear for the country’s short-term future. This, I suppose, means that, astonishingly, a hung Knesset and the prospect of another election in a few months doesn’t look like the worst result.

As I pointed out to someone last week, every time we have an indecisive election result, it at least pushes us a little closer to deciding that the electoral system itself needs to be revised, which may be the only long-term path out of this chronic stalemate. The discussion as to what form that revision should take will have to wait for another time.

To the four of you still reading, I thank you for your perseverance, and promise you (God willing) something considerably more upbeat next week!

Meanwhile, we can at least end on a positive note. Raphael can’t decide where to put his cross, but he has at least put down lots of noughts.