This week, I feel as though I want to step back and attempt to assess where we are. There are a few things I want to say in this post. Some of them may contradict others. I apologise for that. It seems to me that it is still premature to attempt any final assessment (of something that clearly isn’t finished). However, this feels like a good place on the road to pause and reflect. I apologise for any lack of clarity, and I’m really not sure that I can bring anything new or particularly insightful to the table. However, that has never stopped me before, so here we go.

Since 7 October, 2023, we have been fighting a war against Iran and its proxies. This war still has no name. That may be partly because the war has no single theatre: it has been waged and is being waged in Israel, in Gaza, in Judea and Samaria, in Lebanon, in Syria, in Iran, in Yemen, and, conceivably, in other theatres that we will learn about at some point in the future, or possibly not.

The lack of a name may also be partly because, for Israel, the war has never had a single, clear, achievable aim. Throughout the last 20 months, various aims have been proclaimed. Principal among these are: eradicating Hamas; returning the hostages; breaking the ‘ring of fire’ around Israel; preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons; destroying Iran’s missile capability. Let’s take a closer look at these.

Israel cannot remove Hamas from Gaza: it can certainly mow the grass shorter than ever before (and has done so), but Hamas cannot be separated out from the population of Gaza and defeated. As long as there are Arabs in Gaza, and as long as some of them are attracted to Hamas, Hamas will continue to recruit new members to replace those who have been killed.

There are two possible ways to remove Hamas from Gaza. The first is to expel the entire Arab population from Gaza, and I am not proposing that. The second is for the population of Gaza to undergo a social reform. This would, presumably, need to be sponsored, fostered and nurtured by Arab countries that are allies of Israel, and would, I imagine, involve dismantling the entire corrupt UN infrastructure in Gaza. This is not something that will be completed in my lifetime. My feeling is that a 30-year plan is needed to achieve a situation where Gazans under 40 years of age are all deradicalized.

Israel cannot return the hostages from Gaza. It can work towards that, but only Hamas can return the hostages, and to couch the desire in terms of ‘bringing’ them home has been a constant source of unresolvable contention within Israel. Neither the Government, nor the IDF, nor the Mossad, can ‘bring’ the hostages home. In addition, creating the negotiating conditions under which Hamas will be prepared to return the hostages will certainly mean giving up on the aim of removing Hamas from power.

In terms of breaking the ring of fire, Israel has achieved a great deal, but, on every front, Iran’s proxies are weakened but not destroyed. This is, of course, a function of those proxies being terror organisations rather than sovereign states. A terrorist organisation cannot be defeated in war with the finality that a nation state can.

As for Iran’s nuclear capability, who knows how much we achieved? Were several hundred kilograms of enriched uranium smuggled out of Fordow before the American B-2s struck? Have we assassinated enough of the scientists and administrators of the nuclear program to set it back a generation? Regarding missile attacks, have we destroyed enough missile launchers, stockpiled missiles and missile factories to remove the threat of further missile attacks from Iran?

Much of the above feels like kicking the can down the road. Undoubtedly, a long way down the road; further than ever before. However, it is difficult, at this stage, to know how much the fundamental existential threat to Israel has been removed.

Let me say, at this point, that the name 12-Day War, to describe the campaign directed against Iran by Israel and then the US, is a misnomer. This was not a war, but rather a single campaign in the war that began on October 7. To see the threat of Iran as separate from the threat of Hamas, Hizballah, the Houthis and others is to misrepresent the role of Iran in the Middle East.

In fact, I would like to propose that we call the current war the Israel-Iran war, both to emphasise that all of the other forces of evil involved are mere tentacles of Iran, and to point out that America’s involvement, valuable and valued as it was, was momentary, and came only after the bombers’ path to and from the bombing site had been secured by Israel.

Last Friday, which was Rosh Chodesh, the first day of the month of Tammuz, shuls in Israel said full Hallel, rather than half Hallel – the shortened form of Hallel that is recited on Rosh Chodesh. (Hallel is a collection of psalms expressing thanks to God.) The reason for this decision was to express thanks for the success of the campaign in Iran over the last couple of weeks.

While I expressed, above, reservations about coming to any final conclusions regarding our success in waging the war and the impact it will have on the geopolitics of the Middle East, it is difficult to argue with the decision to say Whole Hallel. Let me try to give a sense of what I feel we have to be thankful for.

First and foremost, we need to give thanks that Hamas acted unilaterally and impetuously on October 7, assuming, as it did, that the other tentacles of Iran, and maybe even Iran itself, would join the assault on Israel. Horrifying and devastating as the assault on the Southern communities and on the Nova festival was, imagine how much worse it would have been, how much more thinly our national resources would have been stretched, if, at the same time, Hizballah had launched rocket attacks and a major incursion in the north, while the Houthis fired missiles from Yemen and Iran sent over wave after wave of ballistic missiles.

Then, we need to give thanks for the nationwide, immediate, unhesitating response to this assault. Countless stories of individual heroism continued to emerge even months after the events of those first 36 hours. Without in any way belittling the horrifying suffering visited on the thousands of victims of this assault, those who were murdered, raped, abducted or otherwise assaulted, it was only the selfless courage of so many of those present, as well as of the hundreds who rushed to the area, that prevented many thousands more being similarly abused.

We must also give thanks that each of the vast number of pieces that constituted the jigsaw of the Hizballah pager sting fitted perfectly. There were so many points at which the plan could have failed. That this sting demoralised the organisation as completely as it did is an incredible game-changer, and that this seems to have emboldened the government of Lebanon to stand up to Hizballah is even more remarkable.

The timing of the fall of Assad’s regime in Syria opened a potential air corridor for our fighter planes that we could secure, bringing Iran within much easier and safer reach of the Israel Air Force. Coupled with the ease and speed with which we neutralised Iran’s own air defences, this meant that we had total control of the airspace over Iran, and our planes were able to traverse the country with no losses.

Not least of all, we must give thanks that, within the Haredi community, there are growing numbers who recognise that they are part of this national struggle, and are choosing to serve in the army. From this modest but already growing start, a national change may well grow, until Haredi military exemption and avoidance are sought by only a minority of that community. What seems clear to me is that this necessary change can only come organically. No attempt to impose it by force can succeed.

Each part of this is deserving of thanks. Taken as a whole, it represents an alignment of positive outcomes that invites the adjective miraculous, whether used literally or metaphorically. All of the above is, of course, also testament to years, if not decades, of assiduous intelligence-gathering, brilliant planning, meticulous preparation and, finally, flawless execution. It all shows what can be achieved by a nation whose citizens recognise the justice of their cause and are committed to their surviving, and their flourishing, in their homeland.